Uncle Bob Says : Honest Estimates

What is the most honest estimate you can tell me? Three little words, “I don’t know”, that is the most honest estimate you have got because you don’t know. Anybody who pretends they know how long something is gonna take it is lying and BTW if you make a estimate date, you are lying. If someone comes to you and ask “can you get this done by Tuesday?” and you say “Yes” then you are lying. You don’t know that you can get it done by Tuesday unless you absolutely certain for some reason maybe it’s one line change and Tuesday is a week’s away.

So how do we deal with this? because the answer “IDK” is the right answer but it does not contain enough information. Managers gonna need something better than that because they have to be able to manage.

We can define the shape of what we don’t know. We can put an boundary around what we don’t know. This is simple and old idea way back to 1950s. You don’t give an estimate of one number you give estimate of three numbers.

“Best case”, if everything goes right, meaning everything, like eating right breakfast serial every morning, everyday you go to work and your co-workers are actually polite to you, all that stuffs. 1 week

“Denominal case”, this is when things go the way usually go, i’m gonna spend half of my time in meetings, arguing with my co-workers, wife. 3 weeks

“Worst case”, everything goes wrong. 8 weeks

It is probably right but no managers want to hear that BTW cause managers want number. “give me number”, “nah i can give three”, “no no i want number”, “i can’t give you one number, i have to lie and i don’t wanna lie”. And then because you are giving them three numbers, managers have to do something. I hope that they are used to doing that they have to manage. Because the job of managers to manage that kind of risks.

6:26:55